Single+100
Westbridge to win
Stake1.70u $16.98
Net profit if won$16.98
YOUR FIRST LOOK INSIDE
Try it. Make up your own mind.
No account, card, or setup. Pick the part you want to explore.
OPTIMIZER / SAVED SAMPLE RUN
See the plan, not just the picks.
Three independent events. A $1,000 bankroll. One unit is $10. This saved example uses Balanced with 0.15 Kelly and allows up to three picks per parlay.
The same starting model estimate and saved plan used in “Follow one bet.” Editing the separate Model tab does not rerun this saved plan. No live optimizer job or credit charge is triggered here.
Harbor vs MetroHarbor to win
56.5% estimated chance · 1.95 / -105
Westbridge vs North CityWestbridge to win
57.0% estimated chance · 2.00 / +100
Riverside vs ValeRiverside to win
54.0% estimated chance · 2.10 / +110
Total stake3.40u$33.97 · 3.40% of bankroll
Recommended tickets42 singles · 2 parlays
Modeled average profit$6.77An expectation across outcomes, not a promised return
The recommended tickets
Single+110
Riverside to win
Stake0.23u $2.34
Net profit if won$2.58
2-pick parlay+310
Harbor to win + Riverside to win
Stake1.22u $12.19
Net profit if won$37.72
Estimated parlay price. Check the actual offer before placing it.
3-pick parlay+719
Harbor to win + Westbridge to win + Riverside to win
Stake0.25u $2.45
Net profit if won$17.63
Estimated parlay price. Check the actual offer before placing it.
Why is Harbor only in parlays, not a single?
A Harbor single has value at these inputs. At 56.5% and -105 · 1.95, a $10 single has $1.01 modeled average profit. But the optimizer compares the whole plan, not each bet on its own.
WHERE HARBOR APPEARS
In the Harbor + Riverside double, and the three-pick parlay. Both need every leg to win.
WHAT YOU GIVE UP
If only Harbor wins, every ticket above loses. A Harbor single would pay in that situation.
Compare the same plan with parlays switched off
Same probabilities, prices, bankroll, and Balanced settings. Only the parlay switch changed.
Singles + parlays
- Total stake
- 3.40u
- Modeled log growth
- 0.611%
- Harbor single
- 0.00u
Singles only
- Total stake
- 5.11u
- Modeled log growth
- 0.602%
- Harbor single
- 1.46u
The mixed plan reaches slightly higher modeled log growth with less total stake here. But it gives up some winning situations a single would cover. This is not proof of a universal optimum or that parlays are always safer.
Log growth compares how a bankroll could compound across these possible results. It is not a promised return.
You decide what to place. The guided practice lets you compare these same runs and change a tracker copy without rewriting the recommendation.
Try the complete handoff →Inspect every possible result 8 scenarios
These three events are modeled as independent. Parlay odds are multiplied from the single prices. All tickets settle as win or loss. Change those assumptions in a real optimizer and the recommendation may change.
| What happens | Modeled chance | Slate profit / loss |
|---|---|---|
| Harbor wins · North City wins · Vale wins | 11.17% | -$33.97 |
| Metro wins · North City wins · Vale wins | 8.61% | -$33.97 |
| Metro wins · North City wins · Riverside wins | 10.10% | -$29.04 |
| Harbor wins · Westbridge wins · Vale wins | 14.81% | $0.00 |
| Metro wins · Westbridge wins · Vale wins | 11.41% | $0.00 |
| Metro wins · Westbridge wins · Riverside wins | 13.39% | $4.92 |
| Harbor wins · North City wins · Riverside wins | 13.12% | $20.86 |
| Harbor wins · Westbridge wins · Riverside wins | 17.39% | $74.91 |
Modeled expected log growth: 0.611%. This measures average change in the logarithm of bankroll across these scenarios. It is not an actual return. All probabilities here are invented inputs.